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Sen. Ted Cruz has surged into a statistical tie with Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. 

With two-and-a-half months left until the Iowa caucuses, Trump leads in the Hawkeye State with 25 percent, but Cruz has now surged to 23 percent.

Ben Carson follows at 18 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio at 13 percent. Jeb Bush garnered only four percent in the survey, one point behind Sen. Rand Paul.

Trump went on the attack a few weeks ago against Carson after the retired neurosurgeon jumped in the polls. 

Bill Hemmer asked FoxNews.com digital politics editor Chris Stirewalt whether Trump - who has so far "played nice" with Cruz - will now change his tone toward the Texas senator. 

Stirewalt said thh more experienced Cruz will be "much harder to take down" than Carson and will "be ready to swing back" if Trump goes after him. 

Stirewalt explained that in this poll, Cruz is doing very well in several key demographics, shown in the image below. 

While Cruz is also doing very well with women, Stirewalt explained that Trump is winning among men, self-described liberals and moderates, and those without a college degree.

Stirewalt said Carson has been hurt in the last week in several polls due to the increased focus on national security following the Paris terror attacks.

Watch his full analysis above from "America's Newsroom."

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