12 Days Out: Sabato Says 'Growing Chance' of GOP Majority (Eventually)
Larry Sabato of the UVA Center for Politics joined Shannon Bream this morning (video above) to go over his latest analysis in which he forecasts a "good chance" of Republicans winning control of the Senate.
From Sabato's Crystal Ball:
The blunt math: Our present ratings leave Republicans with 49 seats and Democrats with 47 seats, with four Toss-ups: Georgia and Louisiana, which both might be heading to overtime, and Colorado and Kansas, where incumbents Udall and Roberts are in deep trouble — especially Udall — but retain a path to victory. To claim a majority, Republicans need to win half of the Toss-up states. Democrats need to win three of them to achieve a Biden Majority (a 50-50 draw with Vice President Joe Biden’s tie-breaking vote giving Democrats the edge). Given the playing field, this arithmetic certainly advantages the GOP, but there is at least some chance that Democrats might pull off the unexpected.
So the Senate remains too close to call, but it’s clear that Republicans are well positioned to win a majority and that Democrats’ backs are up against the wall as Election Day approaches.
He also cautions that because of the likely runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana and a usually time-consuming count in Alaska, it may take a while before either party can declare a Senate majority.
The runoff in Louisiana would be in December, while Georgia's, if needed, would be in early January.
Here's a snapshot of Sabato's analysis of some of the big Senate contests: